Clearwater, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

535
FXUS62 KTBW 300039
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
839 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

The organized multi-cell cluster that developed earlier this
evening has moved east of the area and will head offshore of the
Atlantic coast in the next hour or so with most areas dry at the
moment across the CWA, though a few spotty showers/storms continue
to linger mostly north of I-4. The shortwave energy that aided in
convective development earlier will swing off to the east for the
remainder of the evening so conditions should remain mostly dry or
isolated at most through about midnight but afterwards hi-res
models continue to suggest scattered showers and isolated storms
developing in the onshore flow regime, particularly from Tampa Bay
northward across the Nature Coast. While confidence in overall
coverage and location overnight remains on the low side, will
maintain similar thinking to inherited forecast with increasing
rain chances overnight towards Friday morning ahead of a late-
season cold front dropping into northern Florida tomorrow.
Otherwise, another muggy and warm evening ahead with overnight
lows in the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast for
central/southern areas and 70s elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The pattern aloft this afternoon features weak ridging to the east
of Florida with troughing to our west and shortwave energy over the
southeast slowly spreading over the region. At the surface, the
Atlantic ridge axis is south of the area with a trough to the north.
The rest of today will feature a similar setup to the past few days,
with the best thunderstorm chances over inland areas and the
southwest Florida region. For tonight into Friday, troughing will
deepen across the southeast, with a weak frontal boundary dropping
into northern Florida. This will allow moisture to increase across
the region ahead of the boundary, leading to increased rain chances
starting tonight over the Gulf and coastal regions, then spreading
over the rest of the local area for the rest of Friday and Friday
night. The boundary will slowly sink southward on Saturday, with
rain chances dropping by the afternoon and evening.

While some moisture lingers over the southern part of the forecast
area for Sunday, relatively drier air does make it over areas to the
north, with dew points falling into the 60s rather than the 70s we
have been seeing. Of course, it is the end of May/early June, so
these slightly nicer conditions will not linger and warm and more
humid conditions return for early next week, along with daily rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 834 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the evening but
scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA may develop Friday morning around
the Tampa Bay area so brief flight restrictions will be passable
at times in pockets of heavier precipitation. Westerly flow should
then allow most of the precipitation activity to move east of the
area by late afternoon and evening tomorrow so VFR conditions
will generally prevail through he remainder of the day, though a
few lingering SHRA may be possible at times through the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain below headlines through tonight, then turn
westerly and increase to exercise caution levels for parts of the
waters late Friday through Friday night ahead of a frontal
boundary. Rain and storm chances also increase over the Gulf
starting tonight and continue through Saturday before diminishing
north to south as winds also turn northwest. High pressure then
builds back in, with winds decreasing further for Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as deep moisture remains over the region
and a frontal boundary brings showers and storms Friday into
Saturday. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  91  78  88 /  30  50  60  50
FMY  77  92  77  89 /  20  30  50  80
GIF  76  91  75  88 /  40  60  40  60
SRQ  78  90  77  87 /  30  40  70  60
BKV  71  90  71  87 /  30  50  60  40
SPG  80  89  78  86 /  40  50  70  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt